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Business · Cryptocurrency · published 2026-08-14 · via Fortune

Upset in Wisconsin primary shakes confidence in prediction market accuracy

Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket had assigned Francesca Hong a roughly 95% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary, but David Crowley secured an upset victory. The unexpected outcome has dented the credibility of these platforms.

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This summary is AI-generated and original to Mobble; the linked article is the authoritative source. Original headline: “Prediction markets’ reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin.” Browse more stories.