UK Met Office warns of record-breaking El Niño intensity

Britain's Met Office predicts sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific could exceed three degrees above average, making it the strongest El Niño in over a century. This would cause severe droughts in South America and the West Pacific, with significant implications for global food security. The forecast indicates an unprecedented event in modern climate records.

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The Met Office's forecast centers on sea-surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, where readings are already running about 2.6°C above the 30-year baseline. An El Niño is officially declared at just 0.5°C above average, making the projected three-degree anomaly roughly six times that threshold. The warming has already contributed to drought conditions in Indonesia, where the Karian Dam reservoir has re-emerged after being flooded in 2023, and authorities are exploring cloud seeding to combat an intensifying wildfire season.

Adam Scaife, the Met Office's head of long-range forecasting, described the signal as unprecedented in modern climate records, with effects expected to persist over extended periods rather than brief weather events. Beyond tropical droughts, the pattern is projected to bring increased autumn rainfall and storminess to the UK around November, illustrating the global reach