Intensifying El Niño raises risk of huge carbon release from Indonesian blazes
Wildfires in Indonesia are already burning intensely, and forecasters say the developing Super El Niño could make them far worse, potentially releasing billions of tonnes of CO2. The 1997-98 El Niño saw 2.5 gigatonnes of CO2 from Indonesian fires, and the 2015 event released 1.5 gigatonnes. The Met Office predicts sea surface temperatures could exceed 3°C above normal, surpassing previous records.
The fires are concentrated in Borneo and Kalimantan, where vast peatlands—built from millennia of forest debris—store enormous carbon reserves. When forests are cleared, these peats dry out and become highly flammable, and underground fires can smolder for months, releasing CO2 steadily. The 1997-98 event alone emitted roughly a third of annual fossil-fuel emissions at that time, and the current season is already matching those early-year benchmarks. Forecasts suggest Pacific sea-surface temperatures may exceed 3°C above normal, surpassing the 2°C peaks of the two strongest El Niños on record, which would likely drive fire activity to unprecedented levels.
If this Super El Niño intensifies as predicted, the resulting carbon release could accelerate global warming, affecting communities worldwide through more extreme weather. Regional populations in Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia face immediate health risks from toxic smoke, with school closures already occurring. The fires also threaten biodiversity and local livelihoods dependent on forests. While the exact scale remains uncertain, the potential for billions of tonnes of CO2 emissions underscores how climate feedback loops may amplify existing vulnerabilities, though improved monitoring and fire-management efforts could mitigate some impacts.