Analysts doubt sanctions will force Iran to yield, despite economic strain

Iran has warned it will respond harshly to expanded US sanctions, which Washington hopes will force a change in Tehran's behavior. However, analysts suggest the sanctions are unlikely to make Iran capitulate, even though they are hurting the population. The standoff continues over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil once flowed.

The expanded sanctions target not only Iran but also third-party countries that Washington views as cooperating with Tehran, widening the scope of economic pressure. This escalation follows roughly six months of conflict, during which the United States has failed to dislodge Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that previously carried about one-fifth of the world's traded oil. The sanctions represent Washington's latest lever to alter Iranian behavior after military pressure stalled.

Reporting from Tehran indicates the measures are inflicting real hardship on the Iranian population, yet analysts remain skeptical that economic pain alone will compel capitulation. Iran has publicly pledged a harsh response to the new measures, suggesting the standoff will continue. The situation remains tense, with the conflict's six-month mark prompting assessments of its costs, including a reported $1,100 per US taxpayer.