AFC West projection: Three-team race with Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos nearly even
The AFC West is projected to be a tight three-team race, with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos each having about a 30 percent chance to win the division. The Chargers are rated highest by the model but face offensive line injuries, while the Chiefs have uncertainty with Patrick Mahomes returning from an ACL injury. The Broncos are expected to regress after a fortunate 2025 season.
The model projects Kansas City at 9.6 wins, Los Angeles at 9.4, and Denver at 9.1, with playoff odds of 58.4, 55.8, and 51.7 percent respectively. Las Vegas trails badly at 6.2 projected wins and just 17.8 percent playoff odds. The Chargers' offensive line issues are already mounting, with center Tyler Biadasz lost for the season and tackle Rashawn Slater still recovering. Denver's 2025 success relied heavily on an 11-2 record in one-score games, a mark the model views as unsustainable given an offense that ranked in the league's bottom third. Kansas City's defense also faces questions in the secondary and at tackle, even before considering Mahomes' recovery timeline.
This projection could shape fan expectations and betting behavior across three major markets, potentially influencing ticket sales and media coverage throughout the season. The near-even odds may also affect how each franchise approaches roster decisions and trade deadlines, knowing a single injury could swing the division. For casual viewers, the tight race could boost engagement with the AFC West as a compelling weekly storyline, while fantasy players may weigh the uncertainty when drafting Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos players.