WNBA playoff projections: Lynx lead, but field is tight
The WNBA playoff field is set, with the Lynx, Valkyries, Aces, Fever, Dream, Liberty, Wings, and Mystics qualifying. The Athletic's projection model gives the Lynx a 98 percent chance of earning the top seed, while the Valkyries are favored for the second seed. The bracket forecast will update live as games conclude.
The Athletic’s projection model relies on Elo ratings, with 1500 representing league average, to simulate remaining games and seed probabilities. Minnesota’s 98 percent top-seed likelihood reflects a dominant 31-8 record, while Golden State holds an 80 percent edge for second. The bracket updates live as results finalize, giving fans a rolling view of matchups.
Beyond the playoff picture, the model also forecasts the 2027 draft lottery for the seven non-qualifying teams. Lottery odds derive from two-year aggregate regular-season win percentage, with the Sun, Tempo, and Sky currently holding the strongest chances at the top pick. This dual projection—playoff seeds and draft positioning—offers a complete outlook for all 15 franchises.
These projections may shape fan engagement and league narratives as the postseason approaches, influencing ticket demand, viewership, and social media discussion around contender viability. Teams outside the field could see renewed interest in draft positioning, potentially sustaining attention through the season’s end. The model’s transparency may also help casual observers understand competitive balance, though probabilities remain estimates rather than guarantees.