Wisconsin governor's race deadlocked in new Marquette poll
A Marquette Law School Poll finds Democrat David Crowley and Republican Tom Tiffany each with 44% support among registered voters in Wisconsin's gubernatorial race. Among likely voters, Crowley holds a 49% to 44% edge. The survey, conducted Aug. 12-20, has margins of error of 4 and 4.5 percentage points.
The Marquette survey, conducted over nine days in mid-August, sampled 891 registered voters and 738 likely voters, with respective error margins of 4 and 4.5 points. The split between registered and likely voter results highlights the importance of turnout models, as Crowley’s advantage among likely voters suggests higher Democratic enthusiasm. The poll was released before the general election campaign fully intensifies, leaving room for shifts.
Crowley’s primary victory over Francesca Hong came with the backing of outgoing Governor Tony Evers, while Tiffany secured his nomination more easily. Following Crowley’s win, Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race from a toss-up to leaning Democratic, reflecting a perceived advantage for the Democrat in a state that has seen close statewide contests. The candidates now face a competitive fall campaign in a key presidential battleground.
This poll’s near-even split among registered voters, contrasted with Crowley’s lead among likely voters, could shape campaign strategies on turnout and messaging. The outcome may influence national perceptions of Democratic strength in the Midwest ahead of the 2026 midterms, potentially affecting resource allocation by both parties. Voters in Wisconsin may see intensified advertising and outreach, while the race’s competitiveness could serve as a barometer for broader political trends in swing states.