Watchdog: Early federal model predicted thousands at risk from East Palestine chemicals

Documents obtained by the Government Accountability Project show that a federal model projected nearly 18,000 people could face severe injury from phosgene exposure and hundreds more from hydrogen chloride after the 2023 East Palestine, Ohio, train derailment. The projections were not made public at the time, though evacuations were ordered. Critics argue residents should have been informed of the initial risk estimates.

The Government Accountability Project obtained documents through Freedom of Information Act requests, including a whistleblower declaration, showing the federal Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center produced risk estimates shortly after the derailment. Those initial figures projected nearly 18,000 people could face severe injury from phosgene exposure, with additional projections for hydrogen chloride exposure and potential fatalities. The modeling was later revised downward dramatically as more information became available.

The EPA stated the initial model assessed an "absolute worst-case scenario" and that updated projections were shared with state and local officials. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine's office noted the projections preceded evacuation orders, which would have reduced potential impact. The incident involved vinyl chloride, a plastic-making chemical that can break down into phosgene and hydrogen chloride.