Notre Dame tops CFP odds, eight teams favored to make field
Notre Dame has the shortest odds to make the 12-team College Football Playoff, with -800 odds on DraftKings implying nearly an 88 percent chance. Eight teams have minus-odds to reach the field, including Texas Tech, Miami, and Ohio State. The Fighting Irish's schedule ranks 60th in FBS, and they start with six teams that had losing records last season.
The preseason odds reflect a notable shift in how schedule strength is weighted in the playoff era. Notre Dame's relatively soft slate—ranked 60th nationally with six opening opponents that finished below .500 last year—appears to factor heavily into their favored status. Texas Tech similarly benefits from the 73rd-ranked schedule among Power 4 teams, boosting their projection despite trailing six schools in sportsbook pricing.
Historical caution is warranted, however. Last season, only four of eight preseason minus-odds teams actually reached the field, with Notre Dame among the near-misses after an 0-2 start. The current odds also cluster tightly around several programs—Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and Miami all sit within a narrow range—suggesting the race behind the Fighting Irish remains genuinely unsettled.
These odds could shape fan expectations and media narratives well before kickoff, particularly for Notre Dame, whose independent status and schedule difficulty remain perennial debate points. A projected 88 percent playoff probability may intensify scrutiny if the Irish stumble early, while the emphasis on weak schedules could influence how fans and commentators evaluate teams like Texas Tech. For bettors and casual viewers alike, the preseason numbers may frame the season's storylines, potentially amplifying pressure on favored programs and their coaches.