Under-the-radar CFP contenders: 10 teams with a path to the playoff
The Athletic's model identifies Louisville, Virginia, and Kansas State as potential playoff sleepers. Louisville has a favorable ACC schedule and avoids Miami, while Virginia returns the Power 4's most experienced roster. Kansas State also has a path according to the simulations.
The Athletic's playoff model, simulating 100,000 season outcomes, identifies sleepers across all Power 4 conferences. Louisville's case rests on a favorable ACC draw that excludes Miami, though the Cardinals must replace their quarterback with Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz and open against Ole Miss in Nashville. Virginia, coming off an 11-win season and an overtime ACC title game loss to Duke, returns the Power 4's most experienced roster while avoiding Miami, Clemson, and Louisville.
In the Big 12, Kansas State benefits from the conference's second-easiest schedule under new coach Collin Klein, a former Heisman finalist who previously coordinated the Wildcats' offense. Houston, at 10.9 percent, returns quarterback Conner Weigman and adds the nation's top recruit, Keisean Henderson, after a 10-win 2025 campaign. UCLA rounds out the list at just 3.6 percent.
These projections could reshape how fans and athletic departments evaluate preseason expectations, potentially influencing ticket sales, recruiting momentum, and media coverage for programs like Virginia and Houston that rarely receive national playoff attention. A sleeper run may also intensify conference realignment discussions, as schools demonstrating playoff viability become more attractive properties. However, the model's percentages remain speculative, and actual outcomes will depend on injuries, quarterback play, and close-game fortune that no simulation can reliably predict.