Saxo strategist warns Nvidia's $366 billion in future commitments adds risk

Saxo's chief investment strategist Charu Chanana notes that Nvidia's quarterly report reveals $366 billion in future supply, cloud, lease, and investment commitments, up from $119 billion last quarter. Free cash flow dropped from $48.5 billion to $21.3 billion. Chanana says investors must now consider customer credit quality and financing arrangements, not just GPU shipments.

Nvidia's forward obligations grew roughly threefold in a single quarter, with supply and capacity deals making up the bulk of the $366 billion total. The company also disclosed additional exposure through cloud agreements, data center leases, equity stakes, and capital expenditure commitments, alongside memorandums of understanding for more than half a trillion dollars in potential third-party financing.

Chanana's caution centers on how these figures shift the analytical lens for investors. Rather than simply tracking chip shipments, shareholders must now weigh counterparty risk and the financial structures underpinning Nvidia's sales. The drop in free cash flow from roughly $48.5 billion to $21.3 billion highlights the cost of these expanding commitments, even as the company generated $96 billion in revenue last quarter.