Human-caused warming boosts El Nino strength by more than a third, study finds
A new analysis of 900 years of climate data indicates that El Nino events have grown over 36% more intense since the pre-industrial era, with a 16% acceleration in just the past four decades. The increase closely tracks global temperature rises linked to fossil fuel burning, according to researchers. Stronger El Ninos are expected to amplify extreme weather, from heat waves and floods to droughts, worldwide.
The study analyzed nearly a millennium of climate records, using indirect markers such as coral and weather patterns to reconstruct past El Niño intensity. Researchers compared these reconstructions against global temperature data, finding the surge in El Niño strength aligns closely with warming driven by fossil fuel emissions. Current observations already show a weekly Pacific temperature anomaly of 2.7°C above normal, exceeding the threshold for a "very strong" event, with forecasts suggesting further intensification in coming months. Historical parallels, like the massive 1877 El Niño, demonstrate how such events have previously triggered worldwide disruptions, from crop failures to ecosystem collapse.
Stronger El Niños could amplify existing climate hazards, potentially intensifying heat waves, droughts, and floods across multiple continents. Communities reliant on agriculture, fisheries, and disaster-prone coastal regions may face greater economic losses and food insecurity. The acceleration noted in recent decades suggests that adaptation strategies—such as early warning systems and resilient infrastructure—may need to account for more extreme variability, though the precise regional outcomes remain uncertain.