US trade curbs on drones and robots may push competition to new markets
Washington has tightened restrictions on foreign-made advanced robotics and imposed steep tariffs on imported drones, citing national security. Chinese manufacturers currently dominate global shipments of humanoid robots and drones, giving them scale advantages that US rivals lack. Analysts expect the result to be a fragmented global market rather than a clean US-China split.
The FCC's Covered List, initially created in 2021 to block telecom and surveillance gear from Huawei, ZTE, and Hikvision, has steadily widened its scope to include drones and now advanced robotic systems. Tariff implementation is staggered, with drone duties arriving in September and component-level levies scheduled for 2027, suggesting a phased regulatory approach.
Counterpoint data shows Chinese manufacturers shipped roughly 22,000 humanoid units in the first half of 2026, with the top five makers—AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH, and Leju Robotics—all Chinese and controlling 86% of global shipments. These firms benefit from vertical integration and existing automotive and chip manufacturing expertise, while U.S. competitors operate at considerably smaller production volumes.
These restrictions could fragment the global robotics market into distinct spheres, affecting manufacturers, industrial buyers, and consumers alike. Emerging economies may continue benefiting from affordable Chinese automation, while U.S. and allied markets could see slower adoption and higher costs. The divergence may also slow overall industry innovation, as reduced cross-market competition