Morocco's sardine catch plummets as climate change and Iran conflict drive up costs

Tinned fish demand is rising, but Morocco's sardine catch dropped 46% from 2022 to 2024. Climate change is pushing sardines into cooler waters, while the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure have raised fuel costs, forcing fishermen to travel farther for fewer fish. A fisheries economist calls the combined effect unprecedented.

The global appetite for tinned fish has expanded rapidly, with the market valued at roughly $10.24 billion in 2024 and projected to nearly double to $17.97 billion by 2034. Sardines have overtaken salmon as the second-most popular tinned seafood in the United States, trailing only tuna, while restaurant orders of tinned fish tripled in 2025.

Sumaila's research on Pacific coast sardines shows the same temperature-driven migration pattern, with fish moving northward through U.S. and Canadian waters during warm periods. He observed extreme conditions firsthand in Portugal this summer, where nighttime temperatures held at 34 degrees Celsius. The Strait of Hormuz closure triggered what the International Energy Agency called the largest oil-supply disruption in market history, with Brent crude surging 10 to 13 percent.