Kalshi permanently expels George Santos for profiting on own attendance odds
Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after determining he engaged in insider trading by betting on his own attendance at the State of the Union address, earning $17,839. The company also fined and temporarily banned North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout for placing small bets on her own campaign. Kalshi said it was the first lifetime ban in its history.
Kalshi’s compliance review found Santos repeatedly bet on his own attendance between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25, then made public statements—including false ones—to move the market. His trades yielded $17,839 when he skipped the speech. The platform also fined him $71,356 and banned him permanently, effective last Friday. Separately, Laurie Buckhout admitted to betting under $1,000 on her own campaign, receiving a $2,589 fine and a three-year suspension. Two failed gubernatorial candidates—Stephen Cloobeck of California and Ben Midgley of Maine—also received three-year bans for similar self-related wagers.
Santos, who pleaded guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024 and served 84 days before Trump’s clemency, dismissed the action on X as “frivolous nonsense.” He had earlier settled a CFTC investigation for $35,000, and Polymarket cut ties with him in June. Kalshi said the Santos case marked its first lifetime ban, while the other four traders cooperated and received temporary suspensions.
This enforcement could signal a shift in how prediction markets police insider activity, especially when participants can directly influence the event they bet on. If platforms like Kalshi impose stricter rules and penalties, traders may think twice before leveraging private knowledge or public statements for profit. However, the case may also raise questions about market integrity and whether such bans deter others or simply push risky behavior to less regulated venues.