Jared Diamond argues leaders' impact is largely determined by industry and luck

In his new book, Jared Diamond argues that the impact of leaders, from Genghis Khan to Mark Zuckerberg, is largely determined by the industry and historical context rather than individual brilliance. He uses examples like UCLA's basketball coaches and CEO compensation to illustrate that outcomes often follow statistical expectations. Diamond, who won a Pulitzer for 'Guns, Germs, and Steel,' suggests that boards may overpay executives based on a false belief in their influence.

Diamond's career spans multiple disciplines: he trained as a gallbladder physiologist at Cambridge, conducted field research on birds in New Guinea, and later won a Pulitzer for *Guns, Germs, and Steel*. His forthcoming book, *Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings*, draws on personal history—he grew up during Hitler's era and his wife lost Polish relatives to the Holocaust—shaping his lifelong question about whether individual leaders truly alter events.

His methodology borrows "natural experiments" from epidemiology, citing John Snow's 1854 Broad Street pump removal as a model. Diamond's research attributes only 6% to 29% of company earnings variation to individual CEOs, with industry and company context as major factors. He also notes UCLA has spent over $150 million on coach buyouts since John Wooden, arguing those losing records match statistical expectations from chance.