Why Military Might Is Losing Its Edge in Modern Conflict
Recent wars, including Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the U.S. conflict with Iran, suggest that offensive military operations are becoming less effective against determined defenders. Advances in drones, precision missiles, and surveillance have made it harder for powerful states to conquer territory or force concessions from weaker adversaries. This shift points to a renewed relevance of defense-dominance theory in international relations.
The article highlights how recent conflicts—Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a U.S. war with Iran—demonstrate that advanced drones, precision missiles, and surveillance now allow weaker defenders to inflict heavy costs on larger attackers. This reverses decades of assumptions about offensive superiority, as expensive assets like aircraft carriers and stealth jets become vulnerable to cheaper, concealed systems.
The author, Stephen M. Walt, ties this to “defense dominance” theory, an old international-relations concept gaining renewed traction. He notes that even the United States, long accustomed to projecting power with impunity, has struggled against determined local foes, from North Vietnam to the Taliban, suggesting a structural shift in how military force translates into political outcomes.
This shift could reshape global power calculations, making aggression riskier for major states while emboldening smaller nations to resist coercion. Defense budgets may pivot toward cheaper, resilient systems over costly platforms, and alliances could reassess deterrence strategies. For civilians, prolonged stalemates may mean more protracted conflicts, but also fewer decisive invasions—potentially reducing large-scale territorial conquest while increasing attritional warfare’s human and economic toll.