Syria's quiet diplomacy with Israel may invite further aggression
Israel has launched multiple attacks on Syrian territory, including shelling and airstrikes, while Syria's government has chosen not to respond militarily. The leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa prioritises rebuilding state institutions and international legitimacy over confrontation. Analysts warn this restraint may invite further Israeli incursions and erode public confidence in the government.
The recent Israeli operations span multiple locations, including artillery fire near Beit Jinn in the western Damascus countryside, a ground raid in Quneitra province, and an aerial strike on the Abu al-Duhur military base in the north. Israel framed the air attack as a preventive measure against possible Turkish deployment, a claim both Damascus and Ankara rejected.
Syria's reconstruction needs are immense, with World Bank estimates placing the cost of repairing damaged physical infrastructure at roughly $216 billion. The al-Sharaa government has secured significant diplomatic gains, including the dismantling of broad US sanctions in 2025, the lifting of EU economic measures, and removal from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list in late August.
The strategy of prioritizing reconstruction over military confrontation could have significant consequences for Syrian society. If Israeli incursions continue without response, public confidence in the government's ability to protect sovereignty may erode, potentially fueling domestic discontent