Review: Diamond's 'Hamlet test' fails to prove individual greatness shapes history

In his latest work, Jared Diamond introduces a method to assess whether historical figures are irreplaceable, but the reviewer finds it flawed. The critique notes that Diamond overlooks how other playwrights, such as Marlowe, might have achieved similar greatness had they lived longer. Despite these issues, the book presents a case that Botswana's founding president uniquely shaped his nation's democratic path.

Diamond’s “Hamlet test” compares historical figures to Shakespeare, but the reviewer notes Marlowe’s early death at 29 leaves his potential unproven, especially since Shakespeare wrote his major tragedies a decade later. The book also applies natural experiments, such as minimum-wage studies showing higher wages boosted employment, and estimates CEOs affect 6–29% of company earnings. Botswana’s Seretse Khama is cited as a rare figure who uniquely shaped his nation’s democracy, though other examples, like pomegranate-juice tycoons, are dismissed as obvious.

The review criticizes Diamond for ignoring existing scholarship and presenting familiar ideas as novel. His method works best with quantifiable data, like sports coaching’s 30% impact on team performance, but weakens when applied to subjective realms like literature. The book’s core claim—that individual greatness is measurable—remains unconvincing, yet the Botswana case offers a compelling counterexample.