UN Forecasters See Near-Certain El Niño Persistence Through Winter

The World Meteorological Organization has issued its most definitive El Niño forecast ever, with a near-100% probability the event continues through February. The agency says this El Niño is on track to be the strongest on record, with global impacts already emerging and expected to intensify. The phenomenon is also projected to push global temperatures to record highs, with 2027 expected to be even hotter than 2026.

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The WMO's forecast marks a historic shift in climate prediction, as the agency's network shows unprecedented agreement on the event's trajectory. This El Niño, defined by warmer-than-normal Pacific waters, has been building since early in the year and is now projected to exceed all previous records by a significant margin. The phenomenon typically adds 0.1 to 0.2 degrees Celsius to global temperatures by releasing stored ocean heat.

Observable impacts are already mounting: the US endured its hottest summer on record, while drought conditions have emerged in typically dry regions. Sudan faces exacerbated hunger due to low Nile water levels, and Puerto Rico has implemented water rationing. Eastern Pacific fisheries