Canada's tariffs on U.S. paper goods revive toilet paper shortage fears
Canada is retaliating against U.S. tariffs by imposing duties on American paper products, including a 25% levy on toilet paper and 50% on paper towels. The move revives memories of the 2020 toilet paper shortage, which was driven by panic buying rather than production issues. The new tariffs are set to take effect on September 8.
The 2020 shortage was driven entirely by panic buying—toilet paper sales spiked 734% on a single day in March, and roughly 70% of the world's grocery stores eventually ran empty. Production never stopped; mills operated continuously throughout. The current dispute stems from Washington's 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian goods under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, with Ottawa retaliating against nearly 900 American products.
Americans consume disproportionately heavily, using over 20% of the world's tissue supply despite being just 4% of the global population—an average of 141 rolls per person annually. The new duties take effect September 8, and the U.S. has threatened to double auto tariffs to 50% by January 2027 if negotiations fail.
Consumers could face higher prices on everyday essentials if the tariffs persist, though the 2020 experience suggests shortages are more psychological than real. Businesses reliant on paper goods—restaurants, offices, retailers—may absorb costs or pass them along. The timing, coinciding with midterm campaign season, could make toilet paper a political flashpoint again, as affordability concerns already weigh on household budgets.