Energy Secretary's oil export claim contradicted by tanker tracking data

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed Monday's Middle East oil exports exceeded pre-war levels, but analytics firms dispute this, noting that ship-to-ship transfers and multi-day counting may inflate the figures. TankerTrackers.com estimates only 9.14 million barrels exited the Arabian Sea that day, well below the pre-war average of nearly 15 million barrels. The seven-day average has risen to 8.27 million barrels, but remains far short of pre-conflict volumes.

The discrepancy stems from how oil movements are measured. TankerTrackers.com notes that ship-to-ship transfers—where smaller vessels transit the Strait of Hormuz and later offload onto larger tankers in the Arabian Sea—can stretch across several days, making single-day totals easy to inflate if transfers are lumped together. The firm's data shows Monday's figure of 9.14 million barrels was actually one of the stronger recent days, yet still far below the pre-war norm of roughly 15 million barrels daily.

Volumes have proven highly erratic since hostilities resumed. After Monday's peak, exports dropped to 6.81 million barrels on Sept. 1 and then to 4.63 million barrels on Sept. 2, according to TankerTrackers.com. The seven-day average of 8.27 million barrels does mark improvement over the 28-day average of 6.85 million, suggesting U.S. naval efforts to clear shipping lanes are having some effect, though stability remains elusive.