Citi survey finds US pharma executives skeptical about AI's impact on drug success
A Citi survey of 50 US-based pharma executives found that while nearly all companies are adopting AI in R&D, only 24% expect it to significantly improve drug success rates. Most anticipate moderate gains, and a third see human biology and execution as bottlenecks. The findings highlight a gap between AI adoption and expected outcomes.
The Citi survey, conducted in June 2026, questioned 50 US-based executives overseeing technology strategy in pharmaceutical R&D. While 72% of firms are actively scaling AI, none reported abandoning plans for it. Citi's Asia healthcare research head, John Yung, cautioned that faster discovery does not automatically yield better drugs or higher success rates.
The research also highlights a potential global cost reduction of US$26 billion in drug discovery through AI. Despite widespread adoption, 56% of executives foresee only moderate gains, and 34% believe human biology and execution will remain critical limiting factors regardless of AI deployment.
The gap between AI adoption and expected outcomes could temper investor enthusiasm for biotech firms, potentially affecting funding for innovative research. If AI only yields moderate improvements, patients may see slower progress in new treatments than promised. Conversely, even moderate gains could reduce development costs, potentially lowering drug prices over time. The persistent bottleneck of human biology suggests that AI will likely augment, rather than replace, clinical expertise, shaping how healthcare professionals integrate these tools.