Gulf war likely to conclude through negotiated settlement, not decisive victory
The ongoing Gulf war between the US-Israel coalition and Iran has failed to achieve its original objectives, and Iran has not surrendered. The costs of the conflict are spreading across the region, and historical parallels suggest that such wars often end in compromise rather than outright victory. The author argues that a negotiated settlement is the most probable outcome.
The conflict has unfolded in distinct phases, beginning with a brief campaign halted by a US presidential decision, followed by a resumption of hostilities months later. Oman has acted as a mediator, with negotiations scheduled to resume just as the second wave of strikes began.
The author draws parallels to past US engagements, noting that Washington has not achieved decisive victories in recent decades. The Iran-Iraq war serves as a historical example of a prolonged conflict ending without a clear winner, suggesting a similar trajectory for the current Gulf war.
The intermittent nature of this conflict could prolong economic instability across the Gulf, particularly affecting energy markets and shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz. Civilian populations in Iran and Israel may face recurring threats and displacement, while neighboring states like Oman and Jordan could experience diplomatic and refugee pressures. A negotiated settlement, as the author suggests, might offer a path to reduce regional tensions, but the ongoing uncertainty may continue to impact global oil prices and regional security dynamics.