Nvidia CEO predicts China will master advanced lithography by 2030
Jensen Huang stated in an interview that China will likely develop its own advanced lithography systems within three to four years, calling it 'just a matter of time.' Currently, China's leading toolmaker SMEE mass-produces 193nm dry scanners for 90nm-class chips, with no public evidence of volume production for 28nm immersion scanners. Huang's optimism contrasts with the current state of China's semiconductor tooling capabilities.
China's current lithography output remains confined to 90nm-class production using SMEE's 193nm dry scanners. Although an immersion scanner reportedly capable of 28nm-class chips has been delivered by SMEE affiliate Shanghai Aishengna, such equipment must undergo lengthy qualification before entering high-volume manufacturing, a process that could stretch past 2028.
The gap widens considerably in EUV lithography, where Chinese researchers have demonstrated a laser-produced plasma source generating 13.5nm light, yet no prototype EUV scanner has been assembled. Huang's 2030 timeline would require unprecedented acceleration in both tool development and manufacturing qualification, especially given that even early-generation immersion scanners would trail ASML's current offerings.
Huang's prediction could shape global semiconductor market expectations, potentially influencing investment decisions in both Chinese and Western chipmaking infrastructure. If China achieves advanced lithography by 2030, it may alter supply chain dynamics and pricing for mature-node chips, affecting manufacturers and consumers worldwide. However, the gap between current capabilities and Huang's timeline suggests his optimism may overstate near-term progress, meaning industry observers should weigh technical realities against executive forecasts when planning long-term strategies.