Russia's Imperial Project Faces Inevitable Collapse
An essay argues that Russia's imperial ambitions under Putin are unsustainable and will eventually decline, like all past empires. The ongoing war in Ukraine has severely disrupted ordinary Russians' lives, with daily casualties around 1,100 and a militarized economy nearing collapse. Only elites in Moscow and St. Petersburg still experience a semblance of normalcy.
The essay, authored by Rutgers political science professor Alexander Motyl, argues that Russia's imperial ambitions under Putin are historically unsustainable, noting that all empires eventually decline. It reports that the Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, costs roughly 1,100 Russian casualties daily while the country's militarized economy approaches a breaking point. Ordinary Russians outside Moscow and St. Petersburg face severe disruption, though elites in those cities have only recently begun feeling the war's effects.
Motyl identifies two structural barriers to Russian normalcy: a political culture rooted in messianic beliefs about Russia's world-historical mission, and a national identity that treats dominance over others as a quasi-right. These factors, he contends, make future aggression possible even after Putin's departure, since the war cannot end while he remains committed to it for personal survival.
This analysis could influence how international observers gauge Russia's long-term stability and the durability of Putin's regime. If casualties and economic strain continue mounting, ordinary Russians outside elite circles may face growing hardship, potentially fueling domestic discontent. However, the messianic political culture Motyl describes could sustain public tolerance for sacrifice. Policymakers and analysts may use such arguments to assess whether Russia's imperial ambitions will eventually recede or simply take new forms.