Analytics Overwhelmingly Favor Baylor Over Colorado
ESPN's Football Power Index gives Baylor an 80.3% chance to beat Colorado, with the Bears ranked 38th and the Buffaloes 70th. Colorado is a 10-point underdog according to DraftKings Sportsbook, even as Baylor's starting quarterback DJ Lagway remains uncertain. Backup Nate Bennett has performed well in Lagway's absence, throwing for 562 yards and six touchdowns in two games.
Baylor's offensive production has not stalled during DJ Lagway's absence, as backup Nate Bennett has delivered consecutive efficient performances totaling 562 passing yards and six touchdowns. The Bears' depth at quarterback appears to be a key factor in oddsmakers' confidence, with the spread sitting at double digits despite Lagway's unclear status for the Sept. 26 matchup.
Colorado arrives in Waco after a 41-7 blowout loss to Northwestern, a defeat that prompted Deion Sanders to remove multiple players from the roster for conduct detrimental to the team. Sanders defended the dismissals at his Sept. 22 press conference, saying those players had been given multiple chances. Safety Naeten Mitchell has vowed the defense will respond this week.
This matchup could shape early-season momentum in the Big 12, where a second consecutive Colorado loss would intensify scrutiny on Sanders' roster management and program direction. For Baylor, a decisive home win would validate its quarterback depth and strengthen its conference positioning. The game may also influence recruiting perceptions, as both programs compete for attention in a crowded college football landscape. Fans and analysts will watch whether Colorado's disciplinary shakeup produces focus or further instability.