China's advanced anti-ship missiles threaten to overwhelm US naval response in Taiwan scenario
Analysts say China's expanding arsenal of hypersonic anti-ship missiles, including the YJ-20, could force US and allied navies to divert resources away from a Taiwan Strait conflict. A recent CCTV video showed a Type 052D destroyer launching the YJ-20 from its vertical launch system, highlighting the PLA Navy's growing ability to target surface vessels. This diversification of missile platforms strengthens China's area-denial capabilities within the first island chain.
The YJ-20, a sea-based hypersonic anti-ship missile now in mass production, was recently shown being fired from a Type 052D destroyer's vertical launch system. This weapon was first publicly displayed during a major military parade in September 2025.
The deployment supports Beijing's anti-access/area denial strategy across the first island chain, which stretches from Japan to Borneo and includes Taiwan. Analysts note this diversification aims to keep the US Pacific Fleet at bay, while Washington continues to supply Taiwan with defensive arms despite opposing forceful reunification.
The expanding missile arsenal could heighten regional tensions, potentially prompting US and allied forces to reassess their naval deployments. This may increase the risk of miscalculation in a Taiwan contingency, affecting not only military personnel but also civilian populations and commercial shipping in the first island chain. The strategic balance could shift, leading to greater defense spending and a more volatile security environment for regional societies.