Tariff-Exposed Cities See Faster Rent Declines
Rents in Canadian cities most exposed to U.S. tariffs fell 3% from January 2025 to August 2026, nearly four times the 0.8% decline in least-exposed cities. Oshawa saw the sharpest drop at 8.9%, with other affected markets including Windsor, Hamilton, and Calgary. Analysts note tariffs are one factor amid new supply and slower population growth.
The rental data draws on listings from Rentals.ca and Urbanation, cross-referenced with a tariff exposure index from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab that weighs local export intensity and reliance on U.S. markets. Beyond Oshawa’s 8.9% drop, other hard-hit areas include Windsor, Hamilton, Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Brantford, and Calgary. Nationally, average asking rents fell to $2,035 in August, a 4.8% year-over-year decline. Analysts stress that tariffs are just one pressure point, with record new supply and slower population growth also driving the correction. Future construction may be affected too: structural steel framing costs have climbed 7.2% since early 2025, while purpose-built rentals now make up over 60% of new housing starts nationally.
The faster rent declines in tariff-exposed cities could signal localized economic strain, affecting renters through lower housing costs but also reflecting weaker job markets tied to trade disruption. Landlords and developers in those regions may face reduced revenue and delayed projects, potentially slowing new supply just as demand softens. Policymakers and investors may watch these trends to gauge how trade policy ripples through housing, though the effect remains one factor among broader market shifts.