Forecast warns of sharp rise in child hunger across East and Southern Africa due to El Niño
A new analysis by Save the Children projects that about 8 million children in six East and Southern African countries could experience acute hunger by early 2027, a 30% increase from current levels. The forecast, based on IPC data, attributes the rise to the effects of a looming strong El Niño. Uganda is expected to have the highest number of affected people, while Zambia may see the sharpest deterioration.
The forecast draws on Integrated Food Security Phase Classification data, tracking populations at crisis level or worse across six nations. Uganda's Karamoja region shows a particularly steep decline, with crisis-level hunger rising over 40 percent. Madagascar faces severe acute malnutrition in roughly 78,000 young children, a condition requiring urgent medical intervention.
El Niño's dual impact drives the crisis: drought and crop failure across Southern Africa, while East Africa contends with destructive flooding. These climate shocks arrive amid existing conflict, displacement, and humanitarian funding cuts, compounding vulnerabilities in communities already struggling with food, water, and health service pressures.
This projection could place enormous strain on families, healthcare systems, and aid networks across six countries, with children bearing the heaviest burden. Malnutrition's effects may extend well beyond 2027, potentially affecting cognitive development and long-term health for millions. Regional food markets and cross-border stability could also feel ripple effects, while refugee populations in Kenya may face particular hardship. The scale of need may overwhelm current humanitarian capacity, especially if funding cuts persist.