PitchBook report projects Kalshi's value between $22.8B and $42.1B
PitchBook released a 46-page analysis of prediction market Kalshi, estimating a base valuation of $30.4 billion based on 2028 adjusted earnings. The report sees a bear case of $22.8 billion and a bull case of $42.1 billion, with legal uncertainty from a Supreme Court case as a key risk. Kalshi recently raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation and is eyeing an IPO.
PitchBook’s valuation model hinges on Kalshi reaching $6.4 billion in revenue by 2030, with $3.7 billion in adjusted earnings. The firm’s estimates rely on a mix of public data, API feeds, and management commentary, since Kalshi is private. The report also notes Kalshi’s edge over Polymarket stems from lower promotional spending and partnerships with platforms like Robinhood and Susquehanna, though it warns that legal challenges—especially a Supreme Court case—could reshape the regulatory landscape. States and tribes have already sued over sports-related contracts, a weaker legal area for prediction markets.
This valuation could influence how regulators and investors treat prediction markets broadly. If Kalshi’s high worth holds, it may encourage more startups to enter the space, but legal rulings could also restrict their tax and age advantages, affecting consumers who use these platforms for event-based betting. The outcome may set precedents for how digital financial products are classified, with potential ripple effects on state revenue and user protections.