El Niño forecast to disrupt Philippine poultry sector through 2027
A moderate El Niño could strengthen and affect Philippine poultry production into early 2027, according to a USDA report. Heat stress may reduce broiler weights, egg output, and increase mortality, while lower corn harvests could raise feed costs. The government has reactivated its El Niño task force to mitigate agricultural impacts.
The USDA report draws on PAGASA climate monitoring, which currently tracks a moderate El Niño that may intensify significantly before year's end. University researchers warn that prolonged heat exposure in broiler and layer operations can degrade several performance metrics simultaneously, including weight gain efficiency, egg production rates, and chick viability. Smallholder farms with limited ventilation infrastructure face the steepest mortality risks, with documented losses reaching 20% during past strong events.
Feed supply represents a secondary vulnerability. Reduced rainfall threatens corn harvests, which would tighten feed availability and push ingredient costs upward. Commercial producers with tunnel-ventilated housing and climate controls are better positioned to weather heat stress, while traditional operators are adopting blowers and shifting feeding schedules to cooler hours. The agriculture department's reactivated task force, established in late May, includes cloud seeding, solar irrigation, and adjusted planting calendars among its mitigation tools.
This forecast could ripple through Philippine food prices and household budgets, as poultry is a primary protein source for many families. Smaller producers may face disproportionate losses, potentially consolidating market share toward larger integrated operations. Consumers could see higher egg and meat costs if feed prices climb or supply tightens. The extended timeline into 2027 suggests prolonged uncertainty for farmers planning breeding cycles and feed procurement, though government interventions may partially cushion the impact.