Aging Wind and Solar Fleet to Drive Replacement Wave
Wood Mackenzie estimates that more than 3.5 TW of wind and solar capacity is already operational, with another 2.5 TW facing decommissioning, lifetime extension, or repowering decisions by the 2040s. Replacement demand is projected to account for 44% of global wind installations and 23% of solar installations during that decade. Equipment sales in 2050 are expected to be over 60% higher than in 2026 as ageing projects are replaced, marking a shift from new capacity additions to maintaining and upgrading the existing fleet.
The replacement cycle is unfolding in distinct phases, with wind leading the way. More than 30 GW of wind capacity will have been decommissioned by the end of 2026, with roughly two-thirds retired between 2022 and 2026. Solar, which scaled up later, will see its aging fleet surpass wind's retirement volumes before 2040, creating a larger but delayed opportunity.
Repowering offers practical advantages over greenfield development. Established sites typically retain grid connections, permits, roads and community acceptance, which can accelerate commercial operation and reduce development risk. With global wind capacity reaching 1.29 TW by end of 2025 and renewables undercutting fossil fuels in over 90 percent of new utility-scale projects, the economic case for site renewal remains strong.
The shift from new capacity to replacement could reshape investment patterns across the energy sector. Communities hosting aging wind and solar sites may see continued economic activity through repowering rather than abandonment, while manufacturers stand to benefit from sustained equipment demand. Electricity consumers could experience more stable supply as existing renewable sites are upgraded rather than replaced by fossil alternatives, though the pace of this transition will depend on policy support and market conditions.