European Battery Recycling Projected to Rise, Yet Recovery of Key Metals May Fall Short

A modeling study of light-duty electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles across Europe through 2045 examines how adoption rates, battery lifetimes, second-hand trade, chemistry shifts, and recycling efficiency affect recoverable lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese. The authors anticipate a significant increase in recovered materials starting in the late 2020s, but meeting recycled-content targets—especially for cobalt—will be challenging. Reuse of batteries for second-life applications could cut cumulative recyclable material by roughly 20–25% over the period.

The study projects a notable uptick in recovered battery materials across Europe beginning in the late 2020s, driven by growing adoption of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. However, the modeling suggests that even with improved recycling efficiency, the volume of key metals—particularly cobalt—may not satisfy future recycled-content requirements. This gap reflects the complex interplay of several variables, including how long batteries remain in vehicles, whether they are traded second-hand, and how battery chemistry evolves over time.

A significant factor is the diversion of used batteries into second-life applications, such as stationary energy storage. The analysis indicates this practice could reduce the total mass of recyclable material by roughly one-fifth to one-quarter across the study period, as batteries are repurposed before eventually reaching recycling streams.