El Niño May Raise Prices for Chocolate, Coffee and Other Staples
A strong El Niño is expected to worsen global food insecurity and increase prices for some agricultural commodities. Experts say chocolate, sugar, coffee, olive oil, bread, and palm-oil-based foods could become more expensive. Wheat production is near a 56-year low, and rice imports face drought risks in India, Thailand, and Vietnam.
The U.N. food agency reported August world food prices at their highest since 2022. This El Niño, among the strongest recorded, began earlier this year. Analysts flag thin global buffers for chocolate and sugar, wheat near a 56-year low, and rice-import drought risks in India, Thailand and Vietnam.
Coffee and palm-oil products may feel effects three to 16 months later, extending into 2027. Forecasts cited in the article suggest global food commodity prices could rise by a percentage in the mid-teens, with impacts lasting up to two years and peaking near December 2026.
Consumers in the U.S. may see higher bills for chocolate, coffee, olive oil, bread and palm-oil items, though shortages are considered unlikely. The sharper social impact could fall on low-income households in Africa and Asia, where grain imports and food spending dominate budgets. If prices climb and supplies tighten, hunger and financial strain may worsen, especially for those already facing shipping disruptions and climate-related crop losses.