Nvidia's 2026 Gain Trails Explosive Revenue Growth
Nvidia stock closed at $225 on September 25, up 19% year to date, even though second-quarter revenue more than doubled year over year to $96 billion. Its P/E compressed 25.8% over the past year while EPS grew 59.5%. Management guided to about 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, calling it supply-constrained, and lowered its gross margin outlook to a 71%-72% trough in Q4 as memory costs rise.
Nvidia’s shares ended at $225 on Sept. 25, a 19% year-to-date rise. During the past year, earnings per share rose 59.5%, yet the price-to-earnings ratio fell 25.8%, meaning investors paid less for each dollar of profit. The stock swung from below $170 in March to above $230 in May, then near $190 in July, before August results lifted it past $220.
Second-quarter revenue exceeded $96 billion, more than double a year earlier. Management projected $108 billion for the next quarter and roughly 70% fiscal 2028 growth, constrained by supply. It also forecast gross margin falling to 71%–72% in Q4 from 75% in Q2, with memory costs rising.
Nvidia’s results and financing role could affect many beyond shareholders. Pension funds and retail investors may see returns tied to AI demand, while cloud providers, chip suppliers, and memory makers could face shifting costs. If AI labs relying on Nvidia-backed financing stumble, workers and smaller vendors in the ecosystem might feel delayed projects or tighter credit. Consumers may eventually see AI services shaped by whether compute remains scarce and expensive.