Fuel Costs Take Bigger Bite From Grocery Budgets
Consumer Edge data shows fuel has claimed a larger share of card spending since March, while grocery’s wallet share fell across all income groups. Grocers recorded the largest decline among analyzed categories, down 37 basis points from March through August compared with 2025. Higher diesel costs could eventually push up food prices because transportation is a major input for frequently shipped products.
Consumer Edge found fuel took a bigger portion of card spending beginning in March. By May, the year-over-year increase was about 1.2 percentage points for households below $100,000, compared with roughly 0.9 points for those above that level. Some pressure eased later, but August still showed a wider fuel gap for lower- and middle-income consumers.
Grocery's portion fell 37 basis points from March through August against 2025, the largest drop among categories studied. Every income group declined 31–42 basis points, with $80,000–$100,000 households falling most. Consumer Edge warns this may reflect where people buy food, since stores like Walmart are not included.
If fuel keeps absorbing more household card spending, lower- and middle-income families may have less flexibility for food purchases, potentially shifting them toward cheaper items or different stores. Grocers could face weaker sales shares, while higher diesel and transport costs may eventually feed into prices for frequently shipped or refrigerated foods. The effects could be uneven, with budget-constrained consumers and food retailers most exposed.