Complication or death risk after type 2 diabetes reaches 55% by decade
A study of more than 1.6 million U.S. patients found that the combined risk of chronic kidney disease, heart failure, or death was 33% within five years after a type 2 diabetes diagnosis. That risk rose to 55% at 10 years. Researchers emphasize early and comprehensive diabetes management to reduce serious complications.
The study followed 1,617,508 U.S. patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes between 2010 and early 2024. Their average age was 59, and 51% were female. Among participants, 72% also had abnormal blood fats and 68% had high blood pressure.
Within five years, chronic kidney disease appeared first in 19.0% and heart failure first in 8.3%. If heart failure came first, 42% later developed kidney disease within five years; if kidney disease came first, 23% later developed heart failure. The authors caution that the observational design cannot prove causation and may include selection bias.
The findings may affect millions living with type 2 diabetes, their families, and health systems. Earlier, broader management could reduce later kidney and heart complications, potentially lowering suffering, hospital use, and costs. Because risks rise over time, patients and clinicians may need to prioritize routine screening and coordinated care. In low- and middle-income countries, where diabetes burden is growing, such complications could add pressure to already strained services.