Le Pen extends advantage in new French presidential poll
A fresh Toluna-Harris survey released Monday indicates Marine Le Pen would take 35–36% in the first round of France's 2027 presidential election, up from an earlier 33%. In a hypothetical runoff, she is projected to defeat Jean-Luc Mélenchon and to be well ahead of Édouard Philippe, who polls at 13–16%. The National Rally leader's party became the largest in the National Assembly after the 2024 snap election but did not win a majority.
A Toluna-Harris survey for RTL and M6 placed Marine Le Pen at 35–36% in the opening round of the April 18, 2027 presidential contest. That exceeds the 33% from a September 14 poll. In a May 2 runoff, she would overcome Jean-Luc Mélenchon if he advanced, while Édouard Philippe’s 13–16% would fall short of qualification.
After the 2024 snap legislative vote, Le Pen’s National Rally became the biggest individual force in the National Assembly but still without a majority. In recent Senate contests, the party gained enough seats to establish a formal group there for the first time; Le Monde described this as a warning and said a threshold had been crossed.
The poll may shape France’s political debate before 2027, influencing how parties position themselves on immigration, security and the economy. It could energize RN supporters and unsettle rivals, while voters across the spectrum may face a more polarized contest. If Le Pen maintains momentum, France’s relations with EU partners and domestic minority communities could come under sharper scrutiny, though polls remain snapshots and can shift.