Lula-era Amazon protections credited with sparing 20,000 sq km of forest
Carbon Brief analysis estimates that at least 20,000 square kilometres of Brazilian Amazon forest remained standing because of policies under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Deforestation had risen sharply under Jair Bolsonaro and has since fallen, with this year likely to set a record low. The coming election, in which Lula faces Flávio Bolsonaro, is expected to strongly affect Brazil's environmental direction.
Brazil contains about 60% of the Amazon rainforest. Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro in 2022. Under Bolsonaro, forest loss rose as regulations weakened, agency budgets shrank, illegal activity was enabled, and forest-code enforcement lapsed. Lula reinstated an anti-deforestation plan, and environment minister Marina Silva expanded enforcement. Amazon deforestation dropped from 11,594 sq km in 2022 to 5,731 sq km in 2025.
Preliminary satellite alerts for August 2025–July 2026 show 2,874 sq km, though final figures may be higher; 2026 could set a record low since 1988. Carbon Brief estimates at least 20,000 sq km remained standing because of Lula’s policies—an area comparable to New Jersey, Wales, Belize, or Slovenia. Lula now faces Flávio Bolsonaro, whose policies resemble his father’s.
If Amazon protection remains a priority, rural and Indigenous communities could face less pressure from illegal land clearing, while global climate efforts may benefit from lower emissions. Conversely, a shift toward the Bolsonaro-aligned approach may weaken enforcement, potentially affecting forest-dependent peoples, farmers, and Brazil’s climate credibility. The tied election means these outcomes may hinge on voters’ choices and post-election governance.