South Korean broiler output expected to contract amid supply pressures
South Korea's chicken production is anticipated to decline by approximately 1% to 930,000 metric tons in 2027, following increased slaughter activity in 2026 that is expected to depress prices and reduce profit margins. The 2025-2026 avian influenza outbreak, which resulted in the culling of over 12 million birds, prompted integrated producers to significantly expand breeding stock placements, creating a supply surge entering 2027. Reduced demand from major sporting events and rising production costs are further expected to constrain both industry profitability and chick placement decisions in the first half of 2027.
South Korea's poultry sector experienced significant disruption during the 2025-2026 avian influenza season, when disease control measures eliminated over 12 million birds nationwide. In response, integrated producers substantially increased their breeding stock investments between February and May 2026, placing approximately 3.83 million parent birds—a 10.3% increase compared to the previous year. These newly placed breeding stock are expected to reach full production capacity in the latter half of 2026 and into early 2027, generating a chicken supply surge that will persist through the first quarter of next year.
The projected output contraction reflects economic pressures beyond disease recovery. Rising feed costs and domestic inflation are squeezing profit margins across processing and food service operations, encouraging substitution toward lower-cost imported chicken. Additionally, 2027's absence of major international sporting events—which typically stimulate chicken consumption—removes a demand stimulus present in previous years.
The anticipated production decline could affect South Korean consumers through reduced domestic chicken availability and potentially higher prices if imports don't fully compensate for lower local output. Farmers and processing companies may face compressed profitability, potentially influencing employment and investment in the sector. Food service operators and retailers may increasingly source imported poultry, reshaping supply chains. However, the contraction remains modest at 1%, and whether these pressures produce broader economic consequences depends on import accessibility and consumer price sensitivity.