NFL backs state gambling regulators in Supreme Court prediction market fight
The NFL filed a brief urging the Supreme Court to uphold state gambling rules for sports prediction contracts, arguing they are bets on game outcomes. The league cited nearly $2 billion traded on NFL games through prediction markets on the opening Sunday of the 2026 season and asked the court to act before another season passes. Other leagues including MLB, MLS, and the NHL have partnered with prediction market platforms, while the CFTC has taken a hands-off approach.
The NFL’s 24-page filing asks the justices to affirm state oversight of sports prediction contracts, which the league characterizes as wagers on game results rather than risk-management instruments. It noted that roughly $2 billion changed hands on NFL contests via prediction platforms during the 2026 season’s first Sunday, over half that day’s total volume.
The brief also highlights Kalshi’s scale: sports contracts made up 80% of its activity, with over $173 billion traded by late August 2026, versus $25 billion across all registered exchanges in 2025. MLB, MLS, and NHL have partnered with Kalshi and Polymarket, while appellate courts have split on state enforcement.
A Supreme Court ruling could reshape how Americans access sports prediction markets and how states police gambling. Consumers might gain clearer protections or face tighter restrictions; platforms and leagues could see compliance costs and market shifts. State regulators and operators may face shifting authority, while fans could encounter different rules depending on location. The outcome may also influence how financial and gambling oversight divide responsibilities.