Mark Cuban says health care costs, not AI, are the bigger job threat
Mark Cuban argued that rising health care costs, not AI, pose the bigger threat to U.S. jobs. He pointed to data showing U.S. health care spending reached $5.3 trillion in 2024, about 18% of GDP. Mercer estimates per-employee health care costs could rise 8.2% in 2027, leading many large employers to shift more costs to workers.
Cuban, founder of Cost Plus Drugs and former Dallas Mavericks owner, has said benefit costs will cause more firings or missed hiring than AI. U.S. health spending reached $5.3 trillion in 2024, about 18% of GDP, over double 2000's $2.5 trillion. Per-person spending was $14,775, nearly twice the $7,860 in other wealthy nations.
Mercer's survey of 1,800+ employers found five years of rising costs. It projects an 8.2% per-employee increase in 2027, the largest since 2003. Nearly half of large employers expect changes such as higher deductibles or copays. Yale research linked a 1% rise in medical prices to roughly 0.4% fewer jobs and less payroll at non-health employers.
If health benefit costs keep climbing, employers may respond by shifting more expenses to workers or slowing hiring, affecting employees and job seekers across large firms. Workers with family coverage could face higher deductibles and copays, while some may see reduced payroll growth or fewer openings. The broader public could feel pressure as health care consumes a larger share of economic output, though the exact effects remain uncertain and depend on employer decisions and policy responses.