Pegasus Upper Stage Nears Unpredictable Reentry
A spent third stage from a Pegasus XL rocket, cataloged as NORAD 41892, is predicted to reenter around 10 October 2026, though a 50-day uncertainty window means the location is unknown. The object has been losing altitude rapidly, dropping from about 329.6 km to 208.2 km mean altitude over 82.3 days, with the decay rate accelerating. Its 34.9-degree inclination limits any reentry to latitudes between 34.9 degrees north and south.
The object is the third stage of a Pegasus XL, an air-launched rocket, and it carries the catalog labels NORAD 41892 and COSPAR 2016-078J. It is an Orion 38 solid motor, attributed to Orbital ATK, and has been orbiting since a 15 December 2016 launch.
Tracking data show 187 element sets across 82.3 days. Mean altitude declined from 329.6 km to 208.2 km; apogee and perigee also fell. Recent descent averaged 5.9 km per day over seven days, then 8.6 km per day over two days.
Because the location remains uncertain, authorities and operators in the 34.9°N–34.9°S band may need to monitor updates. Any surviving debris could pose a very small risk to people, aircraft, or ships, though much of the object may burn up. The main societal effect may be heightened attention to orbital debris and reentry monitoring.