Democrats are requesting fewer mail ballots, early-vote analysis finds
An NBC News Decision Desk review conducted with the University of Pennsylvania found Democrats are seeking mail ballots at lower rates than in 2022. The analysis suggests concerns about mail-in voting and Postal Service reliability may be pushing some Democrats toward in-person voting or earlier returns. The shift could complicate how early-vote totals are interpreted, including in North Carolina’s competitive Senate race.
The NBC News Decision Desk, with the University of Pennsylvania, reviewed early-vote data with under four weeks until Election Day. It found Democratic mail-ballot requests down from 2022, while those who requested ballots returned them faster. In North Carolina, Democratic registrants’ requests fell 40%, versus 18% for Republicans and 23% for independent or third-party registrants. Democratic requesters’ return rate rose to 22% from 17%.
Marist polling showed Democratic confidence that the Postal Service would deliver ballots on time dropped from 86% before the 2024 election to 60% last month, after the Supreme Court blocked new Postal Service rules; Republican confidence was unchanged. NBC News polling found more Democrats planned to vote in person than in 2024.
If Democrats continue moving away from mail voting, early-vote tallies may become less reliable as a partisan enthusiasm signal, potentially confusing voters and analysts watching election-night shifts. Campaigns could redirect resources toward in-person turnout, while election administrators may need to accommodate different demand patterns. In close races such as North Carolina’s Senate contest, these changes could affect how quickly results are understood, though they do not necessarily determine outcomes.