McKinsey: AI Will Add Jobs, but 11 Million U.S. Workers Need Retraining
New McKinsey research projects that the U.S. economy will have more jobs by 2035, though the occupational mix will shift. About 11 million Americans may need to move to different occupations, with an average of 770,000 workers a year crossing occupational lines—3.6 times the historical rate. The report says many transitions, such as administrative assistants becoming project managers, require significant retraining and credentials.
McKinsey projects U.S. job count higher by 2035, but composition changes. Around 11 million people might need to switch fields; roughly 770,000 annually cross occupational categories, 3.6 times past norm. Unlike COVID's brief spike, this transition may persist a decade. Administrative support faces largest losses; automation could handle 80% of its hours.
Example: admin assistants can move to project management, where 58% of tasks overlap, but degree/certification barriers remain. Dishwashers to home health aides transfer only 20% skills; packagers to fabrication transfer 52%. Credentials appear in 85% of growing roles; 38% legally required, 47% employer preference. Training costs include lost wages.
Workers in shrinking administrative, healthcare support, and production roles may face retraining pressure, while employers could benefit from skills-based hiring. If credential barriers ease, mid-career moves may become more feasible; if not, displaced workers could struggle with tuition and lost wages. Families, older workers, and communities tied to affected occupations may feel uneven effects. The broader outcome could depend on how quickly training, certification, and hiring practices adapt.