Morgan Stanley Trims NovaGold Target but Still Sees Large Upside
NovaGold shares closed at $6.36 on October 7, down 55% from their March high, while Morgan Stanley kept an Overweight rating and cut its target to $13 from $13.60. The target implies 104% upside, but NovaGold has no production or earnings and depends on the Donlin Gold feasibility study expected in the first half of 2027 and on financing that has not been arranged. The Alaska Supreme Court is still considering a Clean Water Act certification challenge, and a ruling typically takes about a year.
NovaGold closed at $6.36 on Oct. 7, down 55% from its March 2 peak. Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating while lowering its target to $13 from $13.60, implying 104% upside. The company currently produces nothing and reports no earnings, so its valuation hinges on Donlin Gold.
Donlin’s feasibility study is slated for the first half of 2027, and funding has not been secured. Alaska’s high court is reviewing a Clean Water Act certification dispute, with decisions often taking roughly a year. NovaGold ended May with $370.2 million in cash and term deposits after spending $22.7 million net in the quarter.
NovaGold’s volatility could affect shareholders, analysts, and mining-sector sentiment, especially if Donlin’s study, financing, or court review shifts expectations. Alaska communities and project stakeholders may see future effects through permitting, potential jobs, infrastructure, and environmental oversight, though no construction decision is assured. A delayed ruling or funding gap may keep uncertainty elevated for investors and lenders.