Pacific El Nino gauge sets record as climate pattern strengthens
The EU's Copernicus climate service reported that sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 monitoring area reached 29.70C in September, the highest on record for that zone. Forecasters expect this El Nino to become one of the strongest observed, though Copernicus said it cannot yet confirm it as the strongest ever. The pattern can worsen drought, flooding and global warming.
Copernicus reported September sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 zone hit 29.70C, surpassing high points of strong El Niño episodes in 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16. The service cautioned it cannot yet call this event the strongest on record, partly because a new index adjusts for long-term tropical ocean warming. Japan’s weather agency described conditions as the strongest on record, with its monitoring area 4C above normal.
Global average sea-surface temperatures reached 21.05C for September, above the 20.92C mark set in 2023. September ranked as the second warmest on record, with air temperatures averaging 16.27C, or 1.63C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Copernicus said a strong El Niño is still intensifying and could keep months above 1.5C into 2027.
The strengthening El Niño could heighten drought and flood risks across the Asia-Pacific, affecting farmers, coastal communities, and water managers. Food production and prices may become less stable, while disaster agencies could face greater demands. Because the pattern may also push global temperatures higher, heat stress and extreme-weather impacts could intensify for vulnerable populations. The full scale remains uncertain, but early planning may help reduce disruptions.