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World · Latin America · published 2026-10-12 · via Rio Times

Traders Reprice Brazil Runoff, South Africa Inflation and Ethiopia Risk

Image via Rio Times
Image via Rio Times

Prediction market traders this week heavily favored Flávio Bolsonaro over Lula in Brazil's 25 October runoff, while the probability of a Trump endorsement for Bolsonaro dropped sharply. In South Africa, the chance of 2026 inflation exceeding 5% increased, and Mexican rate-hold odds declined as cut odds rose. Brazilian traders also raised the likelihood of a November Selic cut, and the perceived risk of an Eritrean invasion of Ethiopia by year-end grew.

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Polymarket traders assigned Flávio Bolsonaro an 86.7% probability of winning Brazil’s 25 October runoff, against 12.5% for Lula. Weekly turnover there was US$8.6 million, and the market’s lifetime volume was US$180.3 million. A separate contract on Trump backing Bolsonaro slid to 21.5% from 54.5%, though recent activity was extremely thin.

South African December 2026 inflation above 5.0% climbed to 68.2%. Mexico’s November hold dropped to 74.5%, with a quarter-point cut at 19.7%. Brazil’s November Selic cut reached 86.5%. Eritrea invading Ethiopia by

Expanded detail and Context are AI-generated analysis; the linked article remains the authoritative source.
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This summary is Al-enhanced to contain extended analysis and broader social context. The original is {NAME); the linked article is the authoritative source. Original headline: “LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 12 Oct.” Browse more stories.