The 1960 Doomsday Equation That Missed the Population Slowdown
In 1960, Science published a paper by Heinz von Foerster and two students predicting that the human population would grow without limit and reach a catastrophic point on November 13, 2026. The model tracked population growth fairly well for decades, but global growth began falling short of its forecasts around 1993. Birth rates are now less than half their 1960 level, so the predicted doomsday is not expected to occur.
The paper came from Heinz von Foerster, Patricia M. Mora, and Lawrence W. Amiot. They proposed that human communication and coalition-building made our species unlike other populations: denser groups might collaborate more, allowing numbers to rise faster than exponentially. Using 24 world population estimates spanning 2,000 years, they projected runaway growth and argued for halving the global birth rate.
The article drew broad coverage, including Time, The New York Times, and Pogo comic strips. Mathematicians and demographers criticized it in Science letters, but the authors defended their equations. Around 1993, actual population growth began trailing the forecast; current birth rates are less than half 1960 levels.
The story may shape how people view demographic forecasts, reminding policymakers, scientists, and general readers that models can be influential yet fragile. It could affect discussions of birth rates and population trends by showing that projections depend on assumptions about human behavior. It may also encourage caution when dramatic predictions circulate, while preserving appreciation for bold mathematical work.